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9/23/26 Tumultuous Day

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    • September 23, 2026 at 11:25 pm #19256
      BigBalls
      Participant

      I see opportunity guys. AI is the key. AI investment needs to keep growing, this  is an economy dependent on lower rates. And that is not happening, at least in my opinion. Now do you understand the full court pressure on Powell? It was absolute desperation.

      7% mortgage rates and climbing fast.

      4% unemployment

      5% bond yields

      4% cash yields

      $100 oil

      $5 gas prices

      3.4% inflation

      Basically all-time highs in the stock market

      Basically all-time lows in consumer sentiment

      It’s the AI boom carrying the stock market, but not helping mainstreet. You remove that, GDP is flat to negative. Without the AI boom  this economy falters. See the desperation when Trump talks and defends AI. if you are asset rich, like Java and to a lesser extent, your humble servant,  you are crushing it. Everyone else is suffering.

      The Covid inflation in large part is to blame, prices have not come down after the made up supply chain fraud. Tariffs, war, oil shortages just made things worse. And the worst is yet to come. How do we get ahead of the curve?
      Classic, “This is the best of times but also this is the worst of times” where are you?

      This is a great time to be an investor, for everyone else, sorry but you’re fucked. K shaped economy for sure.

       

    • September 24, 2026 at 4:23 am #19266
      RWC
      Participant

      Yes without the AI boom the economy does falter. Rising unemployment, productivity drops, coupled with high inflation and you got the potential for 70’s stagflation. Not there yet and hopefully it doesn’t happen.

      Im invested heavily in AI and a big concern are higher rates raising debts and financing costs for data centers, compressing  high price to earnings multiples, and increasing scrutiny on Cap Ex. Cash rich mega giants will survive and that’s why I invested a ton in Dell some years back. Hoping rates and inflation start coming down next year. Stay invested!

      • September 24, 2026 at 5:49 am #19267
        BigBalls
        Participant

        Excellent! Good move on Dell. I totally missed that train. That’s a beautiful looking chart.

        Looks like the Fed will be forced to raise rates again in October. Hopefully just 25 basis points, I think the markets are already baking that into valuations. We were trending so nicely with rates before the Iran shenanigans. Higher rates definitely complicate things for growth into next year but I’m not too concerned yet. Higher rates means investors in AI companies will focus more closely on cash flows which puts extra pressure on the sector. I have more money at risk in AI than I feel truly comfortable with at the moment. The Fed is in a really tough spot. Their only tool to combat inflation is to increase rates but that’s going to choke off growth. I still have cash I need to deploy, 4% returns on cash investments is nice but not when inflation is at 3.4 % or more. It’s treading water  and I don’t like that.
        Good post dude.

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