Transfer portal hype and reality

[Java]

Hype: everyone is leaving everywhere

Reality: the portal doesn’t actually even open till January 2.  All the news you are hearing is from kids who are trying to get their names out there.  They are NOT in the portal.

Hype: 4 STAR LB RECRUIT FROM BOISE STATE ENTERS PORTAL

Reality: He was a 4 star from backwoods Oregon in 2023.  Played like 120 plays for BOISE in 2 years and is tired of being a backup.  He aint’s taking his 4 stars to oregon or LSU.

When I see some starters, some guys who showed up on TV and highlights bail, then I will pay a little more attention.  As to USC so far, the guys I see look remarkably like non contributors who probably weren’t, except Conley, going to play in the bowl.    What’s interesting to me is that a few games ago, De Carlos Nicholson was benched in favor of Conley, then a game or two later it reversed and they asked Riley, among the 50 other questions post game about it  And he paused.  Looked like he WANTED to say more.  And then just said “nah, coaches decision”  And just like when I saw that idiot WR Mario Williams in and out of the lineup a few years ago, I thought “hmmm, wonder what’s going on”  So they may have had some personality conflicts with Conley.

 

Anyway, right now I think a lot of websites are looking for hype and news and I have not seen anything locally or nationally that rocks my boat yet.

 

For USC, it’s Jackson, Jordan, Cordova and Conley.  Those who were wondering how USC was going to make room for a class of 34 when only 18 graduate?  I think part of it is going from 85 to 100 scholarships.

 

if this is to be believed:    USC 2025 Football Scholarship Distribution  https://247sports.com/college/usc/Season/2025-Football/ScholarshipDistribution/

 

Then USC has 107 players on scholarship and exactly 34 of them are Seniors, making room for 34 new entries.  Granted, I have not heard of 1/3 of these kids and I would be surprised if they had athletic scholarships, so take it for what it’s worth.

[Java]

Found this on the NCAA site  This is for the current year we are in

NCAA Scholarship Rules: What WOULD ChangE?
Let’s explore the changes coming to NCAA D1 sports for the 2025-2026 academic year for schools that opt in to the settlement.

No Scholarship Cap: NCAA D1 schools will be able to offer scholarships to every athlete on their roster, eliminating previous sport-specific limits. This means schools will have more flexibility financially supporting their athletes, increasing the number of potential college sports scholarships.

New Roster Limits: NCAA is introducing new roster limits that match or exceed current scholarship restrictions for each sport. With scholarship caps gone, most programs will be able to offer more scholarships. However, they must follow the new NCAA roster limits for each sport. For example, NCAA football scholarship limits will have a roster cap of 105 players, up from 85. Keep reading to see the full list of new roster limits for all NCAA D1 sports, including the current and new numbers

Scholarship Type: All sports will now be classified as equivalency sports, allowing schools to offer partial scholarships. This is a huge change from the current system where some sports, like football, basketball and volleyball, are headcount sports and only offer full scholarships.
Direct payment: Starting in 2025, schools can opt to share a “cap” of up to $20.5 million with their student-athletes, beginning July 1, 2025. It is up to schools to decide how that money is shared and not all will have the funding to do so (more on that below).
NIL: Student-athletes will still be able to profit off of their Name Image Likeness but there will be changes to regulation of the deals and enforcement.

[Java]

So given that this whole thing came down in I think July and this update to the NCAA site didn’t even get published for public info until OCTOBER 2025?

 

I think all those guys on the USC roster are either walk ons or courtesy scholarships for this year.  That’s why they have 34 seniors.  And it’s also why they can recruit 34 guys.

 

As I previously said.  USC is recruiting their normal sized class.  20-24guys.  They are then recruiting another 10 3 stars that they are PAYING for with scholarships, likely getting no NIL money and they are treating them for roster management purposes, like walk ons.  They will bring in these 10-12 guys and give them a year or two to weed themselves out.  I would expect 1/3 of them to contribute, shine, become something.  And I would expect the other 2/3 to hit the road in a year or two or be asked to.  Someone will become a star.  Just happens.

So the net effect is that USC will have about 22 4 and 5 star guys.  half of them will contribute, be starters for a couple years and someone will be a star.  Hopefully more.    USC will also get about 4 guys from the 3 star group and wind up with 15 contributors and starers from this group.  And I would expect 10-12 of these dudes to be gone inside 2 years and for USC to recycle those scholarships and have Chad Bowden do this thing again.

Oregon has had a larger roster for a couple years.  They accurately predicted the NCAA direction and gave guys NIL and let them pay their own tuition with it.  Supposedly other teams did the same and were able to pack their rosters a little earlier than this year.  I think fall of 2026 is the first time all teams will have had lots of time to plan for this.  And fall of 2026 will be the first time pretty much all the teams you see out there will have 105 scholarship players.  More room for more people at D1.  More scholarships.  Hopefully that means more walk ons get rides.  Preferred yes, I  am sure.  But the little skinny 5-8 160 lb CB or WR isn’t getting one and he’s not going to be allowed to walk on anymore.

So what does this mean for Conley, Jackson, Jordan, Cordova and anyone else that transfers out of USC?  Possibly room for portal additions, but i wouldn’t guess it would be a one for one.  It would not surprise me if 10 guys left USC and they went and got 5 from the portal and just ran with 100 scholarship guys on the team next year.

 

 

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