Advanced Metrics in Baseball is Similar to Hoops Analytics

[PasadenaTrojan]

In a way. The 3 point shot and that math has ruined the game to the tune of 80 threes a game. Why? Because the math works. A 30% clip from behind the line is same expected value if  shooting 50% from two. That’s compelling. But has it improved the game? Made it more enjoyable? Entertaining? Far less dunks. No back to the basket players like Shaq McHale and Dream. No mid range. No variety!! But analytics are “right”.
hoops analytics have also spawned a reliance on two way players. Well these guys often are far inferior to old offensive stars but admittedly better defensively. But is it worth the trade off?  You get a lot more mediocre offensive players for a guy who supposedly a better defender but with the way the game is played it’s just a screen game and a spread/kick out game.

Whats the result?  A boring game and a declining interest amongst its fans. But analytically it’s “right”. See the paradox.

i think baseball is trending this way. The over emphasis on OBP/OPS and WAR is analytically compelling but it’s hurting the game. A walk is the key piece in all three measurements.
All else being the same between two players say with hits and BA if one walks more they have higher OBP OPS and WAR. Fine. But what about when it starts being weighed more heavily for a hitter with less hits and lower BA but then has more walks it inflates his measurables. I’ll take a guy who can knock in a run or a hit (especially more than a single) then a dude getting a walk within reason. Fans ain’t going to games to watch stars get walks.

I understand the benefit of working a count, fighting for your pitch and elevating pitchers pitch counts. but with modern day baseball, bullpen strategies it’s also not as important.
Let’s put a number to it. Say a single is 1. A double is 2. Etc. I say a walk is more like a 0.5 vs the 1 modern analytics give it.  Most likely it’s not bases loaded so a ball isn’t being put into play where a lot of things can happen (Mookies seing eye singles) to get a runner HOME! The point of the game. I thought??

I think it gets changed sooner than later. War is a relatively new data point. I think it gets “tweaked” a bit. As I’ve shown many articles highlight the problems with WAR especially when comparing different players playing different positions. It’s 10000% useless there since it’s based on peer groups. It’s like one guy being a marathoner surrounded by Kenyans and the other is with frequent Golden Corral users.

if it doesn’t the style of the game will suffer and thus the game will suffer. Just like hoops even tho the math “works”.
another example of  it’s a “reality but it’s not working” is the nfl salary cap. Paying a great QB $50-$60M became the standard but now none of them are winning SBs. Mahomes prob got one early on in his new contract and Hurts got one last year but it doesn’t seem to be sustainable long term. Or the decline in the value of the RB which has now gone back to being valued again.
my point is things change quickly. Even those things that are accepted as smart analytics.

 

• This topic was modified 14 hours, 59 minutes ago by PasadenaTrojan.
• This topic was modified 14 hours, 42 minutes ago by PasadenaTrojan.

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