Reply To: 10/24/2025 Stock Market Booms to new records on inflation data

[RWC]

Hey Big Balls, I had a hell of a time getting connected on this board since the change but all is good now. BTW where is everyone it seems a lot of the old regulars are missing?

Some good points in your post, and as usual on the money. I just wanted to add a few things I’ve been watching regarding the Fed, inflation and of course the stock market.

The Fed will meet next Wednesday and probably announce an end to QT. The balance sheet has shrunk from $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.6 trillion this past week. What’s got my attention besides the Fed’s security holdings affecting the liquidity in the economy is that Bank reserves have been shrinking. Reserves have been falling to the point where short term borrowers have had to pay up. Specifically the secured overnight financing rate has topped the Fed’s interest rate on reserve balances. At the least an indication that reserves have grown less ample, and something to keep a eye on.

As far as inflation you pretty much covered it all. Away from trade, service prices continue to be troubling. The Fed’s Super core gauge ( core services excluding housing) climbed at a 4.7% annual rate the last 3 months. Aside from that at least inflation isn’t going crazy.

What can I say about our good friend the Stock market. Other than it’s completely decoupled from the economy lol. Valuations are high so there is no room for companies to disappoint on earnings. Amazing run.