Is 5.4% 4th Quarter Growth Good?

This topic has 9 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 1 day, 5 hours ago by RWC.

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- January 9, 2026 at 1:02 am #8078
  
  PasadenaTrojan
  Participant
- January 9, 2026 at 7:23 am #8116
  
  BigBalls
  Participant
  
  PT, it’s funny that you believe these numbers.
  This is actually very concerning for the economy. The dollar is sinking this year at a level not seen in 50 years. Yes, 50 years. You can show high growth when your currency is sinking in such a drastic manner. I spent some time today analyzing the numbers. The growth you mistakenly want to crow about shows USD to USD as a percentage, the first clue since it isn’t adjusted for inflation. Further, comparing growth in Q4 to Q2 or Q3 is fallacious because the dollar was worth a lot more in the early part of the year relative to other currencies. As an example look at GDP growth in developing countries, when they devalue their currency their growth rate jumps.
  If the numbers were really good Trump wouldn’t be pushing for lower rates like he us. 5.4% growth in a quarter where we had net job losses? Lmao. Only the truly gullible can believe that.
  - January 9, 2026 at 3:22 pm #8134
    PasadenaTrojan
    Participant
    Fair.
    
    agree on not trusting the numbers since Im old enough to remember Obama and Biden administrations fudging the books. For now I do trust Trump and his numbers until proven wrong. And no cnn or fake news saying he’s lying isn’t proof for me.
    
    the low job gain numbers every month aren’t as bad as it looks. Lots of new private sector jobs vs lots of government jobs ending. I’m ok with that trade and dynamic.
    
    as far as dollar value changing. I don’t track that. That’s an interesting point. I trust Trump Ludnick Navarro and Bessent a lot. You obviously dont. We shall see.
    
    This reply was modified 2 days, 7 hours ago by PasadenaTrojan.
  - January 9, 2026 at 5:11 pm #8160
    
    BigBalls
    Participant
    
    You are putting your trust in con artists and grifters, Navarro is a convicted criminal. In situations like this, I always think, “ how can I get ahead of this and make money?” Some of my best years have been in economic downturns. Good luck PT.
    
    The US just had its worst employment numbers since 2020. If you recall 2020 was the Covid year.
    
    The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, according to Labor Department data published Friday, culminating in the worst year for annual job growth outside of a recession since 2003. Process that for a second.
    
    Years marked by the financial crisis (2008) and the pandemic (2020) were worse. But even the meager gains seen in 2025 are likely to be further pared when jobs data is revised in the months to come.
    
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-us-economy-adds-50000-jobs-in-december-to-cap-worst-year-of-hiring-since-2020-135246067.html
  - January 9, 2026 at 5:44 pm #8166
    
    Java
    Keymaster
    
    And yet the market is eating this up. My tqqq is near a record. Debating selling some still.
    
    and Carvana is killing me. Needs to back the F off.
    
    we need something to wreck that company. It drops to $200 overnight. And I’m a gazillionaire
  - January 10, 2026 at 5:25 pm #8243
    
    BigBalls
    Participant
    
    The markets drew the line in the sand in April 2025, specifically the bond market. As I have been saying, bulls have more room to run.
  - January 9, 2026 at 5:55 pm #8173
    PasadenaTrojan
    Participant
    “Navarro is a convicted felon”. Lmao. yeah man go with that.
    
    for refusing to follow a witch hunt subpoena like many previous cabinet members (from both sides) have historically done. Yes we know. Swamp Doesn’t like outsiders who are bad for “business” aka corruption and selling out.
    
    This reply was modified 2 days, 4 hours ago by PasadenaTrojan.
- January 10, 2026 at 3:47 pm #8234
  
  RWC
  Participant
  
  Wow, you guys bring up some great points. I’m not surprised by the surge in the 4th qtr. number, and just assuming for a moment it’s accurate here are some of the drivers:
  
  Productivity (key word) surge. Companies are producing more with less labor which is supporting GDP growth. Thank you technology.
  
  Strong October trade figures, with the goods and services deficit shrinking to its lowest since 09 which significantly boosted the forecast. The shift turned net exports into a major tailwind adding nearly 2 points to the GDP forecast. Robust holiday consumer spending was another factor.
  
  The Atlanta Fed’s doubling of GDP to 5.4% is a watershed moment for 2026. Primary takeaways are clear: the consumer is still spending , and the narrowing trade deficit has become a powerful, if controversial, engine for growth. Let’s watch for the February release of the official BEA GDP figures closely. Additionally keep a eye on the net exports components of future reports, if the current trade surplus in certain sectors is a one- off result of tariff front-running the 5.4% sizzle could turn into a BS spring chill.
  
  Bottom line, I wouldn’t bet money the latest forecast is accurate although the economy and Markets keep chugging along. Big Balls is right on about the dollar and that is a big concern. I mean a 50 year low! No wonder International stocks finally had a good year. Another good point the number is not adjusted for inflation and that’s significant. Big difference.
  You also have around 40% of the Builders cutting prices on new homes in December. They have to contend with higher material and labor prices, as tariffs are having serious repercussions on construction costs. Im jumping around but a lot of stuff going on out there. Happy investing for 26.
  - January 10, 2026 at 5:23 pm #8242
    
    BigBalls
    Participant
    
    Nice post RWC. I need to post about housing soon. Some stuff going on there. Builders are starting to discount inventory but mostly in Texas and other areas in the South where they overbuilt. Still don’t see a crash tho. More later.
- January 10, 2026 at 6:09 pm #8249
  
  RWC
  Participant
  
  Hey thanks Big Balls, I’ll be looking forward to your post.
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