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11/06/2025 October Layoffs Highest in 22 years

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    • November 6, 2025 at 5:32 pm #4056
      BigBalls
      Participant

      The government shutdown has us flying blind because of the lack of data. What we are seeing is massive layoff announcements. Analysts are saying AI is taking over many jobs from humans and that’s the reason for the layoffs. But I’m not so sure I believe that. Manufacturing jobs are down is that AI or tariffs or something else? The highest level of layoffs are coming from the tech sector. Also, We know farmers are getting hit hard.

      THE ECONOMY IS GREAT…but the economy is horrible and it’s Biden’s  fault.

      https://x.com/Acyn/status/1986481598330782117

      We hear both almost at the same time from our elected officials. Which is it? Probably neither. The economy seems to be treading water in a swift current. Great time to stop issuing jobs reports or inflation reports isn’t it?  We can all see grocery prices are  up, beef, milk, fruits, etc.

      The above said,
      1) stock market continues doing well and corporate profits are good.
      2) I don’t know anyone out of work or hurting to find work

      3) My personal economy is largely unchanged. All of my tenants are paying on time, I’m sending out rent increase letters today.

      Are you tired of winning? I expected the Golden Age to be a little different than the Biden years.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/job-cuts-in-october-hit-highest-level-for-the-month-in-22-years-challenger-says.html

      From the article

      “ In total, companies have announced 1.1 million cuts this year, a 65% increase from a year ago and the highest level since the Covid pandemic year of 2020. October saw the highest total for any month in the fourth quarter since 2008.

      “Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes. Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market,” Challenger said.

       

       

       

       

      • This topic was modified 1 week, 2 days ago by BigBalls.
    • November 7, 2025 at 5:10 pm #4097
      RWC
      Participant

      My fund manager just hit on some of the points you brought up and it’s interesting:

      AI and Automation are really boosting output while trimming head count. You don’t see a lot of people, a huge amount of Cap Ex and productivity is exploding everywhere. Great for margins but not so good for workers. A caution flag aimed at jobs not growth.

      Sticky inflation, health care, education and insurance. The Fed can raise or cut rates all they want but he thinks those costs are unlikely to budge because they’re not tied to borrowing. He feels the bigger picture looks mostly calm with inflation cooling not crashing and the broader market seems fine with that. Stripping out healthcare there’s actually negative job growth which means the potential December cut looks less like risk and more like relief.

      On the other hand, profits are gushing, and big tech’s free cash flow is huge fueling mergers and acquisitions. Tech’s cash spigot is open.

      • November 8, 2025 at 7:08 pm #4177
        BigBalls
        Participant

        Good post, thanks for sharing your fund managers thoughts.

        “ On the other hand, profits are gushing, and big tech’s free cash flow is huge fueling mergers and acquisitions. Tech’s cash spigot is open.”

        And that is why I’m having such a hard time divesting from my Tech stocks. I’m making money hand over fist with tech stocks. I’m very uneasy with being so highly concentrated in the sector. Before the 2008 crash I was holding a lot of financial stocks. Because they were doing great for me. Until they weren’t. And they crashed almost overnight. I think Tech, thanks to AI still has room to run. It would be nice to see jobs reports, my instincts tell me job losses are continuing to climb. Q4 is when we see companies prepare budgets for 2026 and trim headcount, there seems to be heavy RIF’s ( reduction in force) but without labor reports all we have to go on is instinct. I’m counting on the Fed continuing rate decreases to bolster corporate profits. I don’t think rate or tax cuts will increase investments in employment or R&D. I think it will just bolster corporate profits, in the short run I’m fine with that.
        Inflation is here to stay, definitely sticky. Not runaway inflation but a persistent steady drip. You’re right, the markets are accepting inflation at current level because the Fed has made it clear that it prioritizes jobs over inflation. Looks like the Fed is almost done with QT ( quantitative tightening). Housing needs a lift, that sector has been in a recession for almost three years.

         

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