10/24/2025 Stock Market Booms to new records on inflation data

This topic has 6 replies, 3 voices, and was last updated 1 month ago by BigBalls.

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- October 24, 2025 at 9:14 pm #3452
  
  BigBalls
  Participant
  
  and the expectation that the Fed will continue to drop rates. This is great news guys. We can afford steak if we are making great returns in stocks. I don’t know how people that don’t invest are going to survive. Hamburger Helper sales are jumping. Cat food will fly off the shelves soon. They are gonna be eating the dogs and cats in Springfield Ohi0 soon. I’m staying in the camp that stocks are going to continue their bull run for the short term. Corporate earnings are solid and with the tax breaks they got that should continue the trend. Let’s go!
  
  The story:
  
  US stocks surged to record highs on Friday as investors digested a crucial inflation report that helped cement expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.
  
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1%, or over 450 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 1.2%.
  
  The September inflation data released on Friday morning came in cooler than expected. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 3% on an annual basis, the highest level since May but softer than forecasts for a 3.1% gain. Month-over-month, prices rose 0.3%, a slight cooling from August’s reading and also below expectations.
  
  The report was delayed by more than a week due to the ongoing government shutdown, and was the first major economic release since the closure began, giving investors a long-awaited pulse check on the economy.
  
  The CPI data did little to shake the near-unanimous investor confidence in a coming rate cut from the Fed next week — and more beyond that. Around 99% of bets are on a quarter-point cut next week, while some 96% of traders expect another slash in December.
  
  Meanwhile, President Trump injected fresh uncertainty into trade negotiations with key US partners, announcing Friday he would cancel trade talks with Canada. Trump cited a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan which features the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.
- October 25, 2025 at 2:42 pm #3460
  
  RWC
  Participant
  
  Hey Big Balls, I had a hell of a time getting connected on this board since the change but all is good now. BTW where is everyone it seems a lot of the old regulars are missing?
  
  Some good points in your post, and as usual on the money. I just wanted to add a few things I’ve been watching regarding the Fed, inflation and of course the stock market.
  
  The Fed will meet next Wednesday and probably announce an end to QT. The balance sheet has shrunk from $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.6 trillion this past week. What’s got my attention besides the Fed’s security holdings affecting the liquidity in the economy is that Bank reserves have been shrinking. Reserves have been falling to the point where short term borrowers have had to pay up. Specifically the secured overnight financing rate has topped the Fed’s interest rate on reserve balances. At the least an indication that reserves have grown less ample, and something to keep a eye on.
  
  As far as inflation you pretty much covered it all. Away from trade, service prices continue to be troubling. The Fed’s Super core gauge ( core services excluding housing) climbed at a 4.7% annual rate the last 3 months. Aside from that at least inflation isn’t going crazy.
  
  What can I say about our good friend the Stock market. Other than it’s completely decoupled from the economy lol. Valuations are high so there is no room for companies to disappoint on earnings. Amazing run.
  - October 25, 2025 at 4:42 pm #3473
    BigBalls
    Participant
    Dude! Glad to see you posting again. The board switch has marooned a lot of posters. Hopefully everyone eventually gets back. As you pointed out QT ( Quantitative Tightening) is causing bank reserves to draw down.The Fed has reduced the pace of its balance sheet reduction but it’s still on a reduction mode. From what I read they are about to end the QT process, maybe by the end of the year. As you say, the Fed has indicated it will stop its tightening once we get to “ample” reserves. All a plan to reduce liquidity and suck money out of the economy. This tightening will increase short term rates and probably cause problems for lenders ( mortgage in particular).
    Inflation is not going crazy, I’m still concerned that tariffs will begin to bite hard this quarter.
    
    Lastly, the stock market keeps climbing even as many sound alarm bells and predict a huge correction (or even a crash). My buddy I share an office with has parked his money in short term CD’s since April because “ the crash is coming”. He has missed out on making a lot of money. Stocks and real estate seem way overvalued but barring a huge economic event I don’t see a correction coming. I’m still way too heavy in tech stocks, but it’s hard to divest when they are doing so well. Real estate is not dropping unless we see a major economic event and massive layoffs. Although builders are getting hammered in parts of Florida, Texas, LA. Austin, Tx buyers are finally figuring out that paying California prices in Austin was a mistake. I’m cool with my real estate investments, but stocks always have me on edge.
    
    This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by BigBalls.
  - October 27, 2025 at 12:51 pm #3602
    
    RWC
    Participant
    
    Nice going with your position in the market.
    
    I can relate to your buddy because I did somewhat of the same thing just not as extreme. Instead of moving it all into CD’s I allocated 30% into the intermediate end of the bond market buying investment grade trying to capitalize on the rate cuts. VCIT and PYLD are excellent funds.
    
    I still retain positions in the Total market index, and four tech companies. Like you I own AAPL, NVDA, and for over two years now my top favorites Dell and Vertiv. Great companies with a big future as long as you’re comfortable with a lot of volatility.
    
    You know the old saying, the secret to investing is to figure out the value of something – and then pay a lot less. Like Java did with TQQQ man that was a great move!
  - October 27, 2025 at 4:54 pm #3614
    BigBalls
    Participant
    Looks like you have a nice strategy. April kicked me in the nutz pretty hard but I hung in there and enjoyed the run up. My buddy told me in April to “sell now for whatever you can get, huge crash is finally coming”. But that didn’t sit right with me. It smelled of panic. I didn’t sell but I was on pins and needles for a few weeks . I’m trying to reduce my tech holdings because I am way too concentrated there. Hoping Tesla hits $500 p/s soon and that will be a sell point for me. Hoping to sell around 20% of my Tesla stock at that point. The Fed is committed to lowering rates so that can only bode well for stocks. Good luck!
    
    This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by BigBalls.
- October 31, 2025 at 3:19 pm #3710
  
  Java
  Keymaster
  
  I’ve still got calls I am chasing. Intel at 35.50 and it’s at $40 now. Tqqq at $112 and it’s at $118. Market outran my calls. Lrcx call in February for $135 and it’s already at $161 today. Bidu $105 and $118. So I’m going to need the market to chill. Speed up the clock or just sell below market value.
  
  Carvana collapsed. Which means I collect an easy $170,000 this week and about $80,000 each of the next two weeks and then the game is over. It was up around $350 $365. Even $380 briefly and I have calls at $435. Dropped to $302 on a bad earnings report. Which means the calls are worthless and I’m rich. Problem is to do it again means I would have to sell new calls at $350-375 and one rule I have is that I don’t sell calls in a territory a stock has already been. It’s already shown you it can get there. Why let it bankrupt you at a price it’s shown you it can reach? So I’m kinda bummed. I know it’s a fraud. I made money off it. Now the game is over. Pout. What now? Trump game ended about a month ago. That stock is road kill and no one even wants to poke it or kick it any more.
  
  I suppose having less exposure is good but sure has been fun making a couple million this year doing that. You sort of get used to it.
  
  now I just have to work on getting those calls I’m underwater on above rolled higher. Wondering if I should sell some tqqq. My average cost is like $33 and it’s $118. A 10% dip on the market would cost me 30% and the stock would go from $118 to $82 over night costing me $1.8 million. Thinking of Kenny Rogers and knowing when to hold em. When to fold em. When to walk away. And when to run. I can sell 3570 shares that aren’t wrapped up by calls. Thinking that would be about $421,000 and might be a good start. Especially if I can find some losers like psec to sell and offset the gains. Would help be raise that $ I need for the new building I found. Waiting for the Colton one to sell
  - November 3, 2025 at 5:43 pm #3938
    
    BigBalls
    Participant
    
    Carvana is like a zombie, you can’t kill it. It’s up 7% this morning. I don’t own any but I have been watching it closely. Good analogy with the Kenny Roger’s song, gotta know when to hold ‘em. Often my Achilles heel but I’m getting better at cashing in profits. For tax reasons I’m trying not to sell anything in Nov-Dec but man is my portfolio kicking ass right now. TSLA is near $470 p/s. It hits $500 and I’m selling 25% of my holdings. It’s a promise I made myself. NVDA and PLTR are really ringing the bell for me as well. TSLA, as the know it alls the on the board told me, “ Why would anyone buy stock in a EV company?”
    
    Millions of dollars later:
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