Historical Mortgage Rate Analysis
A review of the archives from Freddie Mac as far back as they go, to 1971. Freddie Mac focuses on 30 year fixed rate averages for the "12 month previous" and "the year end" after an election
The numbers show no direct line between rate cuts and Presidential elections. A third of the time, rates were higher; a third of the time, rates were lower; and a third of the time, the rates were virtually unchanged.
Another election year myth destroyed, but look at those rates from 1979 to 1988. Rates didn't drop under 10% until '91
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Averages
Election Cycle Starting Rate Ending Rate
Nov 1971 - Dec 1972 7.43% 7.44% +0.10%
Nov 1975 - Dec 1976 8.81% 8.79% -0.02%
Nov 1979- Dec 1980 14.21% 14.79% +0.58%
Nov 1983 Dec 1984 13.64% 14.18% -0.46%
Nov 1987 Dec 1988 10.27% 10.61% +0.34%
Nov 1991- Dec 1992 8.31% 8.21% -0.10%
Nov 1995 -Dec 1996 7.62% 7.60% -0.02%
Nov-1999-Dec 2000 7.75% 7.38% -0.37%
Nov 2003-Dec 2004 5.73% 5.75% +0.02%
Nov 2007-Dec 2008 6.09% 5.29% -0.80%
Nov 2011-Dec 2012 3.66% 3.62% -0.04%
Nov 2015 Dec 2016 3.75% 4.20% +0.45%
Nov 2019 -Dec 2020 3.07% 3.10% +0.03%
In Conclusion, The Socal housing shortage will persist, perhaps for years, for many reasons.
Prices aren't going down in the short term, and now the FED is signaling it will NOT make any "meaningful" rate cuts until at LEAST Q3 2024.
For years I told people my first house in 1990 I think. Was $92,450 and we
Had an fha at 10 or 10.5%. Points too as I recall. People always thought I was exaggerating or didn’t remember right. This shows I was right. No wonder it was so hard to build equity in that house.
With the migration out of California and the continuing ways California Democrats coe up with ways to take money away from its citizens as well as their freedos...I suspect the only reason a housing shortage would continue it their attempt to dump illegals into houses....if you hadn't hears California wants to provide incentives for illegals to get into homes paid for by the state until it runs out of money..