Highest inflation report in the last three years. Bad news for those of us hoping for rate cuts. Further bad news is that the markets have already baked in a September rate cut. Markets are retreating this morning.
The Fed is going to have a real dilemma in their September meeting. Cut rates and risk the return of sticky inflation OR leave rates alone while job creation flops and a recession looms. Oh boy.
The higher rates of the last three years have crushed my mortgage origination business but on the flip side higher rates have boosted my real estate portfolio returns. When rates are low I originate and sell my loans for cash, when rates jump I originate and portfolio the loans. The portfolio is running at 18% + cash on cash returns at the moment. But the risk of holding a portfolio during an economic downturn is a position I would rather not find myself in. I will take higher inflation and the surge in cash rather than a job loss recession.
Whatcha gonna do Jerome?
Why are you always trying to impress us with how wealthy you are?
these government reports mean nothing to the FED, they never use them
Powell made it clear that he and his staff only use 14 unnamed surveys that predict future economic activity
we could argue the veracity of the data and the lack of scientific measures like confidence intervals, confidence levels, and p-values which measure significance of the data, but what's the point, when the FED is not data driven?
and hilariously Powell admitted on March 19 of this year; "The relationship between survey data and actual economic activity hasn't been very tight"
LOL, I wonder why would that be?
executive summary: the FED does not take cognizance of real data, but only hypotheticals, so don't waste your time trying to figure out how the FED will behave in relation to data, real or fake
our inflation rate is in top ten for industrialized nations and top 20 globally, with lower being better
as the economic engine of the world economy, our FED rate should be 1% or lower
the only reason to maintain the current rate is to line the FED's pockets with taxpayer money at the rate of $1.2T per year
but then you're talking about a FED and Chairman that are spending $3.1B of taxpayer money on a $200mm renovation
Don't worry they'll find a way to revise it. can't be right. Fake news. Just because prices are going up doesn't mean it's inflation.
That's what I posted and all the former Republicans like Okinoshi, Obituary, Uncle Rigo, etc. all turned it into something political.
I just wanns make $
TQQQ at $95 baby. My calls are to sell it at $92. Think I am gonna be greedy again and roll then to a week or two at $94. Every dollar means $50K to me. And if I want that new building and sell Colton, Daddy needs a couple mil more.